Friday, September 22, 2006

2006 Top 10 Best Picture Contenders

Top 10 Best Picture Conteders
79th Academy Awards
(predicted September 23rd 2006)

1. Dreamgirls
2. Flags of Our Fathers
3. Bobby
4. The Last King of Scotland
5. Little Children
6. Babel
7. The Queen
8.The Good Shepherd
9. The Departed
10. The Good German

Potentially receiving nominations but not on the Best Picture Radar: Little Miss Sunshine, United 93, A Good Year, Hollywoodland (Affleck), Catch A Fire, The Blood Diamond, Infamous, A Prairie Home Companion, The Prestige, Volver.

*On June 30th, 2006 my top 5 was Flags of Our Fathers, Dreamgirls, The Good Shepherd, Little Children, and The Good German.

Bobby wasn't even on my radar then and it looks like it's shaping up to be a great ensemble drama. Emilio Estevez is surprising me. Once Oprah endorsed the Last King of Scotland, it became clear that this film was the powerful African film of the bunch. I don't really know why I'm holding on to Little Children, it just seems like the film that slips in, especially if the other films are so much "lighter."

It's really hard to tell where The Good German, The Departed, and The Good Shepherd fall in line...I feel like one could easily become a top 5.

The pictures are from Dreamgirls (obviously), Flags of Our Fathers, and the third picture is of Lawrence Fishburne and Freddy Rodriguez in Bobby.

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16 comments:

Carmel said...

I've been getting into tv and movies in the evenings lately to wind down. I lost your link for a while and then found it again.

JW said...

I think there is a good chance the Flags of Our Fathers is going to miss because of two reasons:

1) We've had one nominee (Mystic River) and one winner (Million Dollar Baby) from Clint Eastwood in the last three years. It is *very* rare that someone comes off a win and gets another nomination so soon.

2) Letters From Iwo Jima, the companion film, is ALSO being released this year, and I may be wrong on this, but by a competing studio. I think it is highly likely that there is going to be a vote split here and both are going to miss.

Also, I just don't see Bobby making it. The feedback I've gotten by people I know who have seen advance screenings has been very bad. Although if Scorsese is nominated for The Departed, he has to lose to an actor-director right? That leaves DeNiro and Estevez. Who knows.

The best thing to realize right now is that nobody knows anything. Just take a look at the past couple of weeks. The Black Dahlia and All the King's Men both dropped like a ton of bricks.

I know this has nothing to do with Oscar chances, but I really wish The Science of Sleep would get in for something. It is probably the best movie I have seen in over two years. I'd give it (as of now, based on what I've seen only) Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay, and maybe some techs, definitely art direction.

JW said...

Oh, and another comment. Forrest Whitaker is DEFINITELY in in Best Actor. Infact he's probably a lock to win unless Peter O'Toole ends up getting a make-up Oscar. Oprah has called the last two best picture winners, and would've called the last three if it wasn't for the juggernaut that was Return of the King (she wanted Mystic River). I don't think it's going to win for Picture, but a nom is a definite possibility. If Roger Ebert were around right now to agree with her, it would be basically a mortal lock.

Anonymous said...

****I think there is a good chance the Flags of Our Fathers is going to miss because of two reasons:1) We've had one nominee (Mystic River) and one winner (Million Dollar Baby) from Clint Eastwood in the last three years. It is *very* rare that someone comes off a win and gets another nomination so soon.

But since Eastwood, in the view of his peers, is the greatest American filmmaker currently working then if anybody has a chance at a third Director or Picture win it would be him. That aside I really think it's the quality of the movie that counts not how many Oscars he already has or how recently he won them. If Flags is regarded as being as good or better than his previous Oscar winners he could win. Note; Flags began screening last week & according to one LA based poster at the Oscarwatch boards, who claims to have spoken to some of those present, people were weeping all the way through it.

******2) Letters From Iwo Jima, the companion film, is ALSO being released this year, and I may be wrong on this, but by a competing studio. I think it is highly likely that there is going to be a vote split here and both are going to miss.

Yeah, Warners are releasing Letters & Paramount are releasing Flags. Potentially they could end up competing but both studios are obviously aware of the dangers of that & will want to avoid such a prospect if at all possible. There is also the influence of Eastwood himself which is likely considerable. And there's still no confirmation on a 2006 release for Letters despite what some media outlets are reporting & Letters is still in post-production. An early 2007 is still the most likely prospect IMO.

Emma said...

Bah... Bobby. Bah.

cinefille said...

I just got really excited for the Oscars. I'm expecting Meryl Streep to get some love. And if "Little Miss Sunshine" gets awknowledged in some way, I will be very happy.

Carlinhos Brown said...

Yes, that list is exactly it.

My current predix is:

BEST PICTURE
* Dreamgirls
* Flags of Our Fathers
* Bobby
* Little Children
* Babel

Jordan M. Poss said...

Here's hoping for Flags of Our Fathers. I managed to scavenge a Japanese trailer that advertised both of the forthcoming Eastwood movies, and the stuff looked great. Of course, I'm always a sucker for a good war film, but with Eastwood directing and a lot of other talent on both sides of the camera, these should both be excellent movies.

tooners said...

it's weird to see all of these movies and i don't recognize more than half of them. i hate the fact that many don't come here or they come so late that it's not any fun.

RC said...

JW, I agree Forrest is definitly in...and you know, this situation with Eastwood reminds me of times when people talked about Russell Crowe and Tom Hanks doing repeat different good projects...I still think Eastwood's movie has a chance...him as director, who knows, he could get left in the dust...Jordan...I hope you're right about it being a great film.

mysticdollar, why the bobby hate?
JW, plus, I'm still confused on the release plan for Letters From Iwo Jima.

Science of Sleep? I'm not sure if it'll break through on anything, I would think Screenplay would be it's best shot.

Good list Carlinhos. It could very well be the list.

JW said...

Oh, I think there's absolutely no chance of Science of Sleep getting even a screenplay nod (although that, or perhaps art direction, would be its best chance). I just *want* it to get in for something because I really like it. (:

And, hm, I'm going to go out on a limb and *not* predict Dreamgirls:

Babel
The Departed
The Good German
The Last King of Scotland
The Queen

Although at this point I wish I knew more about Catch a Fire. It is hard to imagine Focus getting shut out of everything (which would happen if Affleck doesn't get in and this movie bombs out). Then again, it looks like they've saved all their big guns until *next* year anyway.

betmo said...

i really liked v for vendetta. i know i am late to that party but i don't go to the theater. i wait until video and then i have to wait until it is 'free' with our video monthly plan. but- it was a good movie.

RWA said...

I would hope that they would consider "Flags of Our Fathers" on its own merits and not by how many nominations Eastwood films have had recently.

Of course, I'm not big on all of these awards shows and their politics anyway.

themarina said...

Dreamgirls eh? I haven't heard very much about this one yet. I'll have to do a little reading. I'm intrigued by your lists. Very interesting.

Will said...

Ok, RC. Maybe I asked you this before, but...
Why are you so gung-ho about Dreamgirls? I think Bill Condon's a talented director. And this looks like an interesting film. But it has seemed to be the first film to your mind each time you talk about Best Picture noms.
Thoughts?

Jesse Gall said...

Love the pics, but I have a feeling that Bobby will lose its steam.

I have this lingering hope that United 93 will enter the equation, but I doubt it.

Good Top Ten though. Solid.

I just started my predicts...so check it out.

Jesse

openedenvelope.blogspot.com

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