Academy Awards: Analyzing Prediction Outcome and Other Thoughts

I have marked the nominees that got nominated in Blue, the other predictions I just left in black. Thoughts are below each catagory.

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Crash
Capote
Walk the Line

runners up: King Kong, The Constant Gardener, Munich

4/5
Thoughts: Many people predicted Munich as a nominee and against my better judgement, I couldn't believe that Walk the Line wouldn't make the cut...especially in the line of Ray making it last year...obviously Speilberg gets a lot of nods, but I thought movies like Syriana and the Constant Gardener would cancel it out...I guess not

Actor

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Jaoquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Straithairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
Russel Crowe, Cinderella Man

runners up: Terrance Howard (Hustle & Flow), Jeff Daniels (the Squid and the Whale)

4/5
Thoughts: This is not surprising...I could have seen it between Howard or Crowe...I bet it was close. Hoffman has got to win this, he was amazing.

Actress

Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Judi Dench, Miss Henderson Presents
Charlize Theron, North Country
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

runners up: Laura Linney (the Squid and the Whale), Joan Allen (the Upside of Anger)
complete miss: Keira Knightley, Pride and Predjudice

4/5
Thoughts: I completly missed Keira...I was hoping she'd get nominated but she didn't seem to have any buzz...but Pride & Predjudice fared well with 4 nominations...and I missed 3 of them. P& P is a great film...totally worth watching.

Supporting Actor:

Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Jake Gylenthall, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence

runners up: Don Cheadle (Crash), Terrance Howard (Crash)

5/5
Thoughts: My only catagory with a complete 5 out 5 sweep. I thought I might be dumb with predicting William Hurt, but I kind of figured that the two black Crash men would end up canceling eachother out since different people highlight one or the others performance...and Matt Dillon is just plain creepy.

Supporting Actress:

Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Amy Adams, Junebug
Frances McDormand, North Country

runners up: Catherine Keener (Capote), Scarlett Johanasson (Match Point)

4/5
Thoughts: This was a tight race, I should've known Keener's role as Harper Lee would win her one, but the part is so light...but I really am glad she got the nomination.

Director:

Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
Steven Speilburg, Munich
Fernando Mierlles, The Constant Gardener

runners up: Bennett Miller, Capote; David Cronenburg, A History of Violence; James Mangold, Walk the Line; Peter Jackson, King Kong

4/5
Thoughts: Congrats to Miller...I thought the directors would give out some Meirlees love like they did with City of God...but Miller deserves the nod too...he showed great directorial skills...I wonder if Clooney could beat Lee here...nah, probably not the Academy has long been waiting to honor Ang Lee...oh well.

Original Screenplay:

Good Night, and Good Luck
Crash
The Squid and the Whale
Match Point
Cinderella Man

runners up: The 40 year-old Virgin, Hustle & Flow
complete miss: Syriana

4/5
Thoughts: I completly thought that Syriana was adapted and had read a little bit where people didn't know what catagory it went into...I was miss directed. How sad, otherwise I think I would have had a perfect score here. I think Crash will win, but I hope Good Night takes home the prize.

Adapted Screenplay:

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Munich
Walk the Line
The Constant Gardener

runners up: Syriana, A History of Violence, Memoirs of a Geisha

4/5
Thoughts: There's certainly a lack of consensus as to what movies are the "it" movies...sometimes History of Violence is there, sometimes Walk the Line, sometimes Constant Gardener, sometimes Muich, Memoirs, or Syriana..to be honest, I'm really surprised Walk the Line missed the love.

Original Score:

Memoirs of a Geisha (John Williams)
Brokeback Mountain (Santaolla)
Munich (John Williams)
King Kong (James Newton Howard)
Cinderella Man (Thomas Newman)

runners up: The New World (James Horner), Chronicles of Narnia (Gregson-Williams)
complete miss: The Constant Gardener (Alberto Iglesia), Pride & Predjudice (Dario Marrenelli)

3/5

Thoughts: I did poor here...but I knew John Williams would get the nods. Look for Memoirs of a Geisha to win here...Congrats to Iglesia and Marrenelli for breaking in...that's just wonderful! I'm glad Newman didn't get nominated...I'm sick of his boring music. But speaking of boring predictable music, I could have almost believed that War of the Worlds had a chance to get nominated and then John Williams would have 3 noms...thankful for only two!

Original Song:

Travelin' Thru, Transamerica
Same In Any Language, Elizabeth Town
There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway, The Producers
Can't Take it In, Chronicles of Narnia
Hustle & Flow (It Ain't Over), Hustle & Flow

runners up: One Little Slip, Chicken Little; It's Hard out there for A Pimp, Hustle & Flow complete miss: In the Deep, Crash

1/3

Thoughts: I'm surprised there's only 3 nominations this year...but there's no real standouts...I imagine Dolly Parton's song from Transamerica will win but the academy let Eminem take it home for "Lose Yourself" from 8 mile, so who knows how they'll groove.

Animated Feature:

Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Madagascar
Howl's Moving Castle

runners up: Tim Burton's Corpse Bride, Chicken Little

2/3

Thoughts: Not surprised.

Cinemotography:

Good Night, and Good Luck
Brokeback Mountain

Memoirs of a Geisha
King Kong
Munich

runners up: The New World, The Chronicles of Narnia

complete miss: Batman Begins

3/5

Thoughts: I had a hard time put down New World for any noms b/c it seemed like it just didn't have it this year...although some people thought it would be a real contender...I am excited to see Batman Begins get a nomination, it deserves it, even though I wish it also would have picked up a nomination for Editing, oh well.

Film Editing:

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line
King Kong
Munich

runners up: Batman Begins, Syriana

complete miss: Cinderella Man, The Constant Gardener, Crash

2/5

Thoughts: My worse catagory by far. Good Night got robbed. This catagory is one of my favorite ones though...and I shouldn't be surprised that only 2 are best pic nominations...these awards tend to deviate. I have no idea who's going to win...it's a tough race. You'll notice Brokeback did not sweep in the technical catagories.

Art Direction/Set Direction:

King Kong
Chronicles of Narnia
Good Night, and Good Luck
Memoirs of Geisha
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

runners up: Brokeback Mountain, Munich

complete miss: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Pride and Predjudice

3/5

Thoughts: I think this'll be another fun race to see what happens. I'm surprised Kong only got 4 nominations. It's making me lean towards Memoirs of a Giesha winning in this catagory.

Costume Design:

Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Predjudice
King Kong
Chronicles of Narnia
Walk the Line

runners up: The New World, The White Contess

complete miss: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Mrs. Henderson Presents

3/5

Thoughts: I think the Narnia people were robbed. Tilda Swinton's costumes as the white witch were so cool.

Make Up:

Chronicles of Narnia
Star Wars: Episode III
Mrs. Henderson Presents

runner up: The New World, Cinderella Man

2/3

Thoughts: I put Mrs. Henderson in the wrong places.

Sound:

King Kong
Walk the Line
Munich
Star Wars: Episode III
War of the Worlds

runners up: Good Night and Good Luck, Chronicles of Narnia

complete miss: Memoirs of a Geisha
3/5
Thoughts: I gave Star Wars too much credit and Narnia and Geisha not enough.

Sound Editing:

King Kong
Star Wars: Episode III
War of the Worlds

runners up: Chronicles of Narnia, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

complete miss: Memoirs of a Geisha

2/3

Thoughts: Same problem as with sound...too much credit to Star Wars, not enough to Geisha.

Visual Effects:

King Kong
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Star Wars: Episode III

runners up: Batman Begins, Chronicles of Narnia
complete miss: War of the Worlds
1/3

Thoughts: Do you see the trend? Star Wars...ARGH!

Foreign Film:

Paradise Now - Palestine
Tsotsi - South Africa
Sophie Schrolls: The Final Days - Germany
The Promise - China
So Close, So Far - Iran

runners up: Requim for Snow, Iraq; Al Otro Lado, Mexico
complete miss: Don't Tell - Italy; Joyeux Noel - France
3/5

Thoughts: I did what I could. I want to see Paradise Now.

Documentary:

March of the Penguins
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
Murderball
Mad Hot Ballroom
Favela Rising

runners up: Rize, Darwin's Nightmare

Complete miss: Street Fight

3/5

Thoughts: Can you believe it? Nothing about WWII.

Documentary Short Subject:

God Lives in Rwanda
Abused
A Note of Triumph

runners up: Dimmer, The Mushroom Club

complete miss: The Death of Kevin Carter: Causalty of the Big Bang Club, The Golden Age of Norman Corwin

2/5 (I thought they'd only choose 3)

Thoughts: I really want to see the short God Lives in Rwanda, the website makes it looks so cool & I love movies about Africa.

I did not make on animated or live action shorts because I know nothing about them.

I scored a 64% accuracy with the awards but many I missed were runners up.