I won't lie. I think I will generally consider the 5 films that have corresponding director nominations will seem like "the real nominees" and if an odd-ball like District 9 makes the list, I will consider it a fluke of the 10 nominee situation.
So Here are My Predictions. And I'm Breaking them up in to two group of 5...no matter how uncool that is.
Best Picture Nominee Predictions - The First 5
(with corresponding director nominations)
The Hurt Locker
Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire
Up in The Air
Best Picture Nominee Predictions - The Next 5
A Serious Man
Easily Could Slip into the Mix - 11-15
Julie & Julia
Because there's 10, let's not count out... 16-20
(500) Days of Summer
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Last Station
A Single Man
The White Ribbon
My unique pick: Crazy Heart is probably unconventional to be included in the Top 10, but I kind of feel like as a late entry it's picking up steam.
My unique exclusion: For some reason it seems like District 9 is supposed to get nominated. It could, but it seems so un-Oscar-like I have a really hard time including it.
My hope: My hope is that An Education is really in that top group and is accompanied by a Best Director nominations.