Thursday, January 10, 2008

Major Precursors - the guilds!

A few weeks ago the Screen Actors Guild announced there nominees for the SAG.

That list can be seen here with some thoughts.

This list gave the first indication that past nominees Denzel Washington and Johnny Depp may not be as secure as previously thought, nor James McAvoy. Perhaps the exclusion of these three year long hopefuls opens the way for Emile Hirsh, Viggo Mortensen and Ryan Gosling. Among other exclusions was the entire cast of Atonement & Sweeney Todd...that's right not a single nod.

Since then, the Directors Guild (DGA) Announced their nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

This could be the final list, again, Atonement (Joe Wright) and Sweeney Todd (Tim Burton) are excluded.

Surely the writers guild would honor the much praised and anticipated Atonement though...

Today, the Writers Guild (WGA) announced their guild's nominees.

WGA Best Original Screenplay Nominees:
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

WGA Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees:
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac

No Ratatouille, but I'm not sure, but it may not have been eligible, but on that, I'm not sure.

ALSO again no Atonement and no Sweeney Todd. The Academy Award best picture is look slimmer for these two film. And if we assume (which we all know we shouldn't) that Atonement and Sweeney Todd are out of the race then...

it looks like this years Academy Award nominees for best picture will be...

No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Into The Wild
Michael Clayton
& ????

What film is "& ????"? Is it Juno? The Diving Bell and The Butterfly? American Gangster (which I would exclude from the potential list, except it did score the SGA best cast nominee)?

Or some how will the backlash reverse and/or will the British contingent of the Academy push Atonement into the top 5?


Fletch said...

Excellent post.

I think your top 4 choices for the Oscars are spot on. I'm thinking Juno won't make it (I don't have a a great reason), The Diving Bell surely won't (too few people have seen it) and though American Gangster might, I think it will get passed by Atonement (Gangster makes for a good showcase for the two actors, and it's good, but it was a pretty plain film). I think there's an outside chance of The Savages making it, and an even slighter one of Before the Devil Knows You're Dead making it.

I think Sweeney Todd will get shut out of the major awards, but will do well in the effects/costuming/set design categories.

Terence Towles Canote said...

With regards to Ratatouille, I don't think it was eligible where the WGA is concerned. I think writers for animated films belong to the Animation Guild rather than the WGA.

EegahInc said...

Personally, I'd like to see a little surprise love for Zodiac or Eastern Promises, but that's probably not going to happen. Atonement will most likely get the nod because people have heard of it and Keira Knightley on the red carpet will guarantee a few extra viewers. (Not really a guess with a lot of thought behind it, but there you go.)