Monday, January 19, 2009

The Dark Knight & Oscar Predicitions for the 81st Annual Academy Awards

I chose to put a picture of Aaron Eckhart and Maggie Gyllenhaal from the Dark Knight to introduce this post because when Oscar nominations are announced Thursday morning, although I do not expect to hear there names, I do expect to hear the Dark Knight named as one of the most nominated films, and that it will be receive a best picture nomination.

I think the general public will be surprised, largely because it's...well, a super hero movie, and no super hero movie has ever been nominated for much outside of the technical categories, and certainly not best picture.

But in the same way The Lord of the Rings series was different from your traditional fantasy series, The Dark Knight has been similarly embraced, and has transcended traditional expectations of the genre.

Also, most people are not aware of how well embraced The Dark Knight has been with many of the critics groups and guilds...having received nominations not just everywhere for Heath Ledger, but also nominations for the film with the Writer's Guild, Chicago Film Critics, American Cinema Editors, Cinema Audio Society, Costume Designers Guild, Directors Guild of America, Producers Guild, and best ensemble nomination with The Screen Actors Guild.

With are my predictions for this years Oscar nominees.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Vistor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Mery Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymore Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Animated Film:
Kung Fu Panda
Waltz with Bashir

Original Screenplay: Happy-Go-Lucky, Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Wall-E, Vickey Christina Barcelona

Adapted Screenplay: Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire

Cinematography: Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Dark Knight, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire

Art Direction: Changeling, Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Dark Knight, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire

Editing: Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Visual Effects: Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, Iron Man

Best Costume Design: Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Duchess, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Make-up: Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Tropic Thunder

Best Original Score: Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Defiance, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall-E

Best Original Song: "I Thought I Lost You" from Bolt, "Jaiho" from Slumdog Millionaire, "Trouble the Water" from Trouble the Water, "Down To Earth" from Wall-E, "The Wrestler" from The Wrestler

Best Sound Mixing: Dark Knight, Iron Man, Slumdog Millionaire, Quantum of Solace, Wall-E

Best Sound Editing: Dark Knight, Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Iron Man, Quantum of Solace, Wall-E

Best Documentary: Enounters at the End of the World, I.O.U.S.A., Man on Wire, They Killed Sister Dorothy Didn't They, Trouble the Water

Best Foreign Film: Canada, France, Israel, Sweden, Turkey

3 or more Nods, according to my predictions: From my count that makes a prediction of 12 nods for the Dark Knight, 11 nods for Curious Case of Benjamin Button, 11 nods for Slumdog Millionaire, 6 nods for Wall-E, 5 nods for Doubt, 5 nods for Frost/Nixon, 5 nods for Milk, 3 nods for The Reader, 3 nods for Revolutionary Road, 3 nods for The Wrestler


Co said...

Hey RC, nice calling out "Trouble the Water" for a song nomination, I would've liked to come with that one myself.

Baino said...

I'm really not comfortable with Heath Ledger's nomination. He was great, no doubt but it will always be considered a consolation prize with little consolation

Anonymous said...

Wow ... I hope these are not your personal picks but rather what you think will end up with nominations. THE WRESTLER definitely deserves a nomination for Best Picture and/or Best Director.

While there is a chance that Eastwood will bet a nom for Best Actor, he doesn't deserve it at all for this shallow, one-note performance.

Anonymous said...

How were you able to predict the sound mixing and sound editing categories? Did you think to yourself, "This movies sound is mixed very well. In fact, it's mixed better than the sound from any other film that I've seen this year."? Or, "The sound was edited very well in this film."? Seriously.

RC said... was a good idea...but with only 3 noms it didn't come close.

@Ray...definitly my predictions, not pics.

@Anon...there are certainly certain things that lead me to think sound mixing and editing are better in x film vs. y film. Why not guess in these catagories too?

Anonymous said...

"@Anon...there are certainly certain things that lead me to think sound mixing and editing are better in x film vs. y film. Why not guess in these catagories too?"

Because you aren't qualified to guess. If you're being honest, you don't have independent judgment on those categories. In fact, I'll bet there are several movies in this blog post that you haven't even seen. So, your predictions are really based on what other people are saying about movies. That's just less interesting to me. I would rather you predict based on what you've seen, not what you've heard.

RC said...

@ anon, thank you for sharing your thoughts. to be honest the films in the sound catagories are films that i've seen.

but, it would certainly be silly to do Oscar predictions strictly based on what i've seen...especially with so many films tossed out to the public in limited release the last week of december.

I am sorry that you are "less intersted" in my predictions that take into account precursors and critics awards, and other indicators.