Somehow, it seems like when a film has a lead female the film is well...unpopular.
You can create a critical hit, but not even the top of the line critical hit when it's a female lead. I don't know why that it is, I don't think it has to be that way, but generally the entertaining well made film led film is a rarity.
Believe me, I think these smaller films sometimes are great, and the performances are amazing. I appreciate Jennifer Lawrence's performance in Winter's Bone, as well as the film, but this type of nomination seems to be the norm, sometimes, it would seem, due to lack of options.
And when it happens, the performance doesn't match up to the caliber of a film that might be a little more avante-garde, has too much talking, super emotional, or uncomfortable to watch.
This year's race is looking particularly unpopular, and unless there is a surprise success story, I would generally expect that the domestic box office average for the film's of this year's Oscar nominated films will struggle to average out above $25 million (that is unless Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and messes up the average. I reserve the right to exclude her from the average should she get nominated).
So with that being said. Here's my July predictions for best actress. Based off history and "the buzz" not based off of viewings, obviously since most of these have not been released, with the exception of those that have been at festivals.
You will notice that these are some unpopular films. You might recognize the actress' name, but unless your a cinefile or Oscar-fanatic I can't imagine many readers of this blog are eagerly anticipating many of these films. Not yet, not later.
My Prediction for the 5 Actresses Being Nominated for Best Actress. Also predicting an average box office of the films of the nominated actresses being less than $25 million in the United States.
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady: Streep portrays Margaret Thatcher in this Phylidia Lloyd directed biopic.
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs: Close plays an English woman dressing as a male butler in Ireland during the 19th century, based on Albert Nobbs by George Moore.
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene: Olsen (younger sister of Mary-Kate & Ashley Olsen) plays a woman who escapes from a cult and tries to re-assimilate with her family in this independent thriller.
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin: A heavy film about a mother (played by Tilda) dealing with the after effects of her son violent massacre at his high school.
Kristen Dunst, Melancholia: Two sister (Dunst and Charlotte Gainsborough) deal with the end of the world when another planet is colliding towards earth in this Lars Von Trier film, Dunst' Cannes actress winning role.
Other Buzzed Contenders Include: Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Keira Knighley, A Dangerous Method; Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn; Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz; Charlotte Rampling, The Eye of the Storm; Jodie Foster, Carnage; Rachel Weisz, The Whistleblower; Anne Hathaway, One Day; Kate Winslet, Carnage; Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur; Mia Wasikowska, Jane Eyre.
Pictured above: Meryl Streep, Iron Lady; Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Kristen Dunst, Melancholia