Monday, February 01, 2010

10 Best Picture Nominees - Predictions...Where Do I Begin?

I'm actually pretty intrigued to see how 10 Best Picture Nominees will effect the nominee landscape.

I won't lie. I think I will generally consider the 5 films that have corresponding director nominations will seem like "the real nominees" and if an odd-ball like District 9 makes the list, I will consider it a fluke of the 10 nominee situation.

So Here are My Predictions. And I'm Breaking them up in to two group of 5...no matter how uncool that is.

Best Picture Nominee Predictions - The First 5
(with corresponding director nominations)

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire
Up in The Air

Best Picture Nominee Predictions - The Next 5

An Education
Crazy Heart
Invictus
A Serious Man
Up

Easily Could Slip into the Mix - 11-15

District 9
Julie & Julia
The Messenger
Nine
Star Trek

Because there's 10, let's not count out... 16-20

(500) Days of Summer
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Last Station
A Single Man
The White Ribbon

My unique pick: Crazy Heart is probably unconventional to be included in the Top 10, but I kind of feel like as a late entry it's picking up steam.

My unique exclusion: For some reason it seems like District 9 is supposed to get nominated. It could, but it seems so un-Oscar-like I have a really hard time including it.

My hope: My hope is that An Education is really in that top group and is accompanied by a Best Director nominations.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Best Actor & Best Actress - Nominee Predictions - No Surprises!

These two categories seem written in stone in before the nominations are announced. Of course, there is always room for surprises, but it would seem to me that room is about the distance between "not happening" and "never."

The room for surprise seems super limited. The only place I see a "surprise" if if Matt Damon's Informant! character (or as I like to call him, Fatt Damon) were to take the spot of say Jeremy Renner.

Otherwise, other possibilities like Daniel Day Lewis, Tobey Maguire or Michael Stuhlbarg, are no possibility at all.

The Best Actress race is even more of a sealed case in my mind. I'm sure there are plenty who'd love to see Emily Blunt nominated, but I don't see her stealing Queen Helen's spot.

Best Actor Best Bets...

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in The Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Best Actress Best Bets...

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gaubourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Most at risk to not get nominated: Jeremy Renner (pictured above) for his role in the Hurt Locker. If nominated, his name is certainly thrown in with "some big dogs." Despite minimal wins, his name has come up as a nominee in all the right places, and I think there will be a lot of love for The Hurt Locker come Oscar nomination morning.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Best Supporting Actor - Nominee Predictions

This race is a little bit of a tighter circle than the supporting actress race in my opinion.

The names have been the same all season long. Christoph Waltz always wins the award, leaving Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), and usually come combination of Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Matt Damon (Invictus), Alfred Molina (An Education), and occasionally Peter Capaldi (In the Loop).

I think the trend would be to predict Waltz, Harrelson, Plummer, Tucci, and Damon.

Although I think I'm very curious to wonder how well Invictus will fair with Academy voters, I question their interest in this film beyond Morgan Freeman's portrayl of Nelson Mandela.

So I feel semi-brave trading out Damon's name for a fifth contender.

I Would Bet the Nominees are...

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Trade out a name with one of these surprises...

Peter Capaldi, In the Loop
Matt Damon, Invictus
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christian McKay, Me & Orson Wells
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia

My Fifth Spot Prediction: You notice my inclusion of Alfred Molina. Molina hasn't been an award season staple, with only limited exposure with a nomination from the British Academy, Broadcast Film Critics, London Critics Circle, and Satellite Awards. These award bodies all recognized Molina previously for his role in Frida, but he didn't receive a nomination in 2003. Maybe this year will be the same, but somehow I have to think his peers might be ready to invite him into their club with his first nomination. Not to mention, his performance in An Education is exceptional. Granted, An Education, is one film that seems to be loosing buzz through award season as it has never really picked up any traction.

Best Supporting Actress - Nominee Predictions

There seems to be a thought that while many of the Oscar races are more or less set in stone there is a little bit of a horse race in the supporting actress race.

Not to long ago, before people actually saw the films in competition, it was thought that Rob Marshall's Nine would be a violent threat in this category with many big names and past award winners filing up this supporting actress category.

But as the movies have come out and buzz has shifted this way and that, there seems to be pre-award consensus that the race is down to Mo'nique (Precious), Julianne Moore (A Single Man), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), and Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air).

While the only person that seems 100% guaranteed the nomination (and probably the win) is Mo'Nique, but the other 3 seems likely, although Julianne Moore seems shaky to me as well.

Previously it has been assumed that Penelope Cruz would be at least the Nine nominee who was a lock in this category with Marion Cotillard in the lead category. Now, I think we could still see either of these women in this category, but there nomination seems less likely all the time.

So, that fifth spot seems open for either one of the female characters in Inglourious Basterds (Melanie Laurent or Diane Kruger) or to Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart. There has also long been a thought that Samantha Morton's role in The Messenger could be a contender.

So with all that talk, I thought I would present my predictions for Oscar Nomination Morning.

I Would Bet The Nominees are...

Anna Kendrick, Up in The Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Trade Out These Surprises...

Marion Cottilard, Nine
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Maggie Gyleenhaal, Crazy Heart
Diane Kruger, Inglorious Basterds
Samantha Morton, The Messenger

My Fifth spot prediction
: You notice my inclusion of Melanie Laurent (pictured above). I think that the steam for Quinton Tarentino's film has only been building through precursor season and the SAG ensemble win goes to enforce, this is not just Christoph Waltz' film. I image the nomination numbers will be high for Inglourious, an Laurent not only pads the numbers but gives a nomination to what is really a very good and memorable performance.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Dad, Films I Know You've Seen

My dad apparently gave a link to my blog to a previous co-worker the other day. My dad, not a reader of the blog, decided to give it a read and mentioned that he had not heard or seen any of the movies my blog recent talked about.

In fact, he said it really didn't interest him.

Sure, with recent post about David Lean's Summertime and the documentary Burma VJ, I can understand why he might skip over those post unfamiliar with the films and projects.

So I thought I would put together a list of films I have watched with my dad that have been released this past decade.

I'm sure I'm missing some, but I've come up with 32 films, not to mention TV shows like the entire Mad Men series.

American Outlaws
The Aviator
Bella
The Big Bounce
Blades of Glory
Cast Away
Catch Me if You Can
The Cove
Deck the Halls
Die Fälscher (The Counterfeiters)
The Family Man
Fun With Dick & Jane
Gladiator
Hearts in Atlantis
Impostor
The Manchurian Candidate (2004)
Miss Congeniality
Miss Pettigrew Lives for A Day
Mona Lisa Smile
Nim's Island
The Patriot
Pearl Harbor
The Perfect Storm
The Santa Clause 2
Seabiscuit
Sherlock Holmes
The Spiderwick Chronicles
Spy Kids
Talladega Nights: The Legend of Ricky Bobby
Unbreakable
Up
The Village

So, Dad, which one of these films would you like me to blog about?

Monday, January 25, 2010

Ensemble: "The More Famous People in a Movie the ___________."

After seeing a preview for Valentine's Day over the holidays, my wife's step sister said...

"I have a theory. The more famous people in a movie the worst the movie is going to be."

Her other example was the similar love-themed comedy He's Just Not That Into You.

Of course, writing about M*A*S*H's anniversary, I can't help but wonder what it would be like in Robert Altman and ensemble-style-all-his-own directed the cast of Valentine's Day (including the entire cast, from Ashton Kutcher, George Lopez, Taylor Lautner, and Taylor Swift).

I miss Altman's ensemble pieces, because he can throw the most random assortment of talent into a film and create something wonderful. My favorite Altman film is Gosford Park. Gosford Park is certainly not short of famous people.

But Altman's mastery of the ensemble was unique.

There's other great ensembles, but there's only so many stars you can pack into a film, and if it's not the right story, more stars doesn't guarantee a lesser need for a storyline.

So it's your turn to finish the sentence..."The more famous people in a movie the ____________.

Happy 40th Anniversary: MASH

40 years ago today, January 25, 1970, Robert Altman's film MASH premiered in New York City.

The film, my favorite from 1970, takes place during the Korean War, but clearly played off thoughts, feelings, and frustrations with the Vietnam war is certainly a unique and important film in American film history.

When Oscar-winning screenwriter Ring Larder Jr, adapted Richard Hooker's novel I have to assume there was a feeling of risk involved with a comedy about this group of confused doctors that made up the Mobile Army Surgical Hospital.

I think about 2009 and what was a very successful year in film for contemporary war films. Films like The Messenger and The Hurt Locker have been critically well received. Yet, these films are dramatic in nature, and while they have messages and commentary inside their stories, I believe much of there success has been their story telling that is objective without being heavy handed message films.

Another contemporary war film came out this year, The Men Who Stare at Goats...this one a comedy, and boy did it bomb. Comedy about war is a unique challenge.

So what makes MASH (often referenced as M*A*S*H due to original poster art and the later franchise that spawned a TV show) into such a great success.

I can only speculate. Was it the performances, Robert Altman's character saturated story telling, the comical gags, or the ability to laugh at something people took very seriously. Maybe it was all of these things.

Whether it's memories of an itchy nose during a surgery, or the many scenes involving Major "Hot Lips" Houlihan, I think this film did something unique and magical that we haven't seen since.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

SAG Awards and the Bazillion Other Awards - A Mini Rant

I don't write this post implying that "I don't care." Or that I don't understand the difference between the various award bodies, but honestly, award season's full scope is hardly interesting without a little bit of variety.

Who was surprised tonight by any of the SAG award winners? Not only do the nominee list start to stack up in ways that are remarkably similar, but as awards are announced, there is hardly any variety. Tonight's film winners lined up exactly with the big winner's at the Golden Globes.

Maybe consensus has been reached that the performance of the year are those of Christoph Waltz, Sandra Bullock, Mo'Nique, and Jeff Bridges.

So why do we all need to keep on having award shows awarding the same people?

If any category makes the SAG awards interesting it is the best ensemble category one of my favorite awards of the whole season because it's completely different. This award goes to the cast of a film, so in a way it signifies to me the best film for acting...so this year, some films like Avatar, don't make the top 5. This year's type 5 ensemble nominees were An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Nine and Precious.

The winner...Inglorious Basterds. Who could have known with certainty which film was going to win, and who can truly gauge what a win in this category means for the rest of award season...and why should it have to mean anything else for awards season...it should instead me a special accomplishment to get nominated for this award, one that while award to selected cast members, should also be meaningful for the directors, producers, and screenwriters who shaped and presented these roles and performances. Now this to me is a special award.

Tonight's Screen Actor's Guild win for Mo'Nique is her 18th win for her role in Precious, and Oscar nominations haven't even been announced. Think that's a lot...this is Waltz's 20th win for his performance, Bullock's 3rd win (I'm sure she's still able to act humble and excited when she wins), and Bridge's 4th win.

Makes you wonder what Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique do with all those awards and trophies? Time to buy a trophy case I suppose.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Ridiculous Quote We Can't Stop Repeating: Ravioli


"You are like a hungry child who is given ravioli to eat. `No' you say, `I want beefsteak!' My dear girl, you are hungry. Eat the ravioli."
--Renato de Rossi from David Lean's Summertime (1955), in reference to why Katherine Hepburn's character should have sex with Rossi' loser character.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

You Will Not Divulge the Secret


"The management of this theatre suggests that for the greater entertainment of your friends who have not yet seen the picture, you will not divulge the secret of the ending of Witness for the Prosecution"
-- Voice Over as the Credits Role at the End of Witness For the Prosecution

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Burma VJ

It's hard to watch the film Burma VJ, directed by Andres Østergaard, without acknowledging it is an important film.

Not to criticize our knowledge of world affairs, but I would guess that while we have probably heard of Burma, located in the country of Myanmar, we probably no little about their current political challenges.

It was only in 2008 when a tropic cyclone devastated the region killing what is estimated at well above 100,000 people. During the disaster I remember hearing about some of the Burmese issues and the military junta in the country for the first time, and how the level 4 cyclone might allow for a breakdown in the military corruption as they might be forced to allow visitors into the country to serve the people who might not normally be accepted.

This devastating event is not the context of the film, but rather that context of my knowledge base. This documentary actually takes place in 2007, months before the cyclone.

This story is about the smuggling of video footage out of a country that controls it's citizens with fear doing everything it can to maintain control of the people, economy, and the way the Burmese engage with the world.

The film's Danish director tells the story of the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) and there role in putting pictures and video into the hands of media of the government's repression, and specifically a huge protest done by the Buddhist Monks in 2007.

What is compelling about this story to me is first that the footage seen in this film while edited together very carefully is also very raw. The film footage of the protest and scenes is done by amateurs on crude equipment trying to film discreetly. This is the film footage available, there is no other footage of these events. And what is amazing is how despite the limits, how so many scenes and angles and sounds are captured. It's powerful and important.

The second intriguing thing about this documentary is the way in Burma VJ simply tells a story. There are no interviews, second thoughts, scholarly explanations, or other accounts, rather the film has a solid narration by a young Burmese male named 'Joshua.'

His narration is seamlessly intertwined with the footage and story, and it's paced a such a calm storytelling quality that not only is it powerful, but also speaks a strong testimony to the technical work that went into this story.

This is an exceptional and compelling film. As one of the 15 films in competition for an Oscar nomination, I would think this film would certainly have a solid chance. As for an important story about current world stories of injustice, this film is one that is not just well made but also important.

This film gives two connected stories of social change in the midst of injustice, one is in the use of modern technology to have social impact. The second is in the use of religious authority as demonstrated by the Buddhist monks to extract social justice out of their religious status. To see these two different methods combined is a unique a moving experience in itself.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Three Directors With Casting Power

If it were my guess there are three directors who have a lot of power right now to hire anyone...

Scott Cooper, John Lee Hancock, and Jason Reitman.

These directors might not be household names but the success of their limited filmography is working in their favors.

Scott Cooper's first picture would seem to be about to bring Jeff Bridges his first Oscar win (Crazy Heart). Not just that, but the film was shot in only 24 days.

John Lee Hancock 3rd picture surprised at the box office. Not only that was able to bring a popular actress, Sandra Bullock, a role with The Blind Side that has given her accolades and credibility she's never had including a likely Oscar nomination and a Golden Globe win.

Jason Reitman has brough celebrity status to Ellen Page in the surprise hit Juno, and now has given Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga award credibility as well with Up in The Air, not to mention provided George Clooney with a perfect part.

Not only are these young directors giving stars a chance to be invited to the big-kid-parties and a chance for the words "Academy Award winner/nominee" to be attached to their names, but there also creating positive roles, one's that people get excited about, that people attach themselves to. These aren't deglam projects like Charlize Theron in Monster, but performances that regular people will embrace as well.

Sure, if one of these directors have an unlucky break on a project or two, then there opportunities to sign big stars will deminish, but right now they're hot and I would think they have a lot of power to sign the stars they want on their projects.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

The 67th Golden Globe Ceremony

Just a few brief thoughts on the globes tonight.

What speeches will be remembered? Probably Mo'Niques for the emotion.

Speech with most finesse? Robert Downey Jr with all the names of people he's not thanking.

Boring speech? Christoph Waltz.

Maybe you should have prepared a speech? Meryl Streep.

Annoying speech? Chloe Sevingy, she just seems so cranky, from the red carpet complaints about the weather to the award speech that just seemed so super flat, not to mention a weird awkward dress moment, I was more than underwhelmed.

Who really annoyed me the most? Oh, not Sevingy, I meant to say Nick Cannon, did you catch any of the post-show broadcast. I felt like it was like Nickelodeon had chosen a winner to guest interview people. This programming was an embarrassment for anyone involved with the post-show.

The winner we'll remember? Sandra Bullock. Who would have thought that her first Golden Globe win would come in the Dramatic film category. She is a class act and America will be glad to have her.

Effect of Sandra Bullock's win? Julia Roberts American sweetheart crown is finally passed. The inappropriate red carpet questions to Roberts were about how she passed up opportunities to star in The Proposal and The Blindside. But somehow I think after this past year, Roberts may be taking second pickings to Bullock. Robert's is in need of a hit more than ever.

Repeat Wins for Acting at the Oscars? Jeff Bridges and Mo'Nique seem almost for sure. At this point I'd guess Meryl Streep will win the Oscar as well, and although he didn't win tonight, I'm still pulling for Woody Harrelson for the big award.

Film I'm Hoping Has A Little Backlash? I have a hard time accepting Avatar as the film of the year, I personally am hoping for a little backlash so attention can be directed elsewhere.

Thoughts on the Host? Ricky Gervais isn't really a favorite of mine anyways, and I felt like his jokes were more insulting than comical. I couldn't get into his performance tonight and am really not interested in his return.

Thoughts on Haiti awareness? I think the thoughts for Haiti and encouragement to donate and participate was certainly appropriate, although at many times felt forced and insincere. Some people certainly seemed very effected by the tragedy, others only seemed like that's what they should have said. I won't say who fell on which end of the spectrum, because it doesn't seem right to judge, but the tragedy certainly played a role in the awards show.

Final thought? I feel like the winner's this year where uniquely American, Jeff Bridges playing a country music singer, Sandra Bullock a Mississippi mom, Meryl Streep an American TV chef icon, & sure Sherlock Holmes isn't American, but how much more American can you get than Robert Downey, Jr? Kind of some American selections from the Hollywood Foreign Press, wouldn't you say?

StrangeCulture 4th Blogaversary!

So, I had a hard time choosing my blogaversary cake online, and settled on this one from Mani's Bakery in LA. Apparently Mani's made it without an artificial colors, prety sweet...unless the frosting taste like green beans.

Anyways, I decided in this cake because, I have a one-year old daughter and so I can have the fairy princess cake.

Actually, if there has been one film that seems to have had a large role on this blog over this past year, Strange Culture's 4th year...it's Julie & Julia.

I was going to make a cake out of Mastering the Art of French Cooking as I have done a few times over this past year for my blogaversary art, but decided I was done with my Julia Child/Julie Powell posts.

In addition to those posts, this blog also saw more posts about films from the 1930s and 1940s, a "What Movies Do Christians Want" Series, a Peace series in October, as well as the annual Reel (Real) People series.

Here are some additional highlights from 2009...

* I Am A Horrible Person: Saying "No" To Girl Scouts & Their Cookies, Too [January 18, 2009]
* Book Adaptations & Best Picture Nominations: Trend Revisited [January 26, 2009]
* 3D: Whoop-di-dee [February 2, 2009]
* Will Blockbuster Survive in 2009? Should it? [February 12, 2009]
* First Thoughts on the 81st Academy Awards [February 22, 2009]
* Reel People: Amy Adams is Julie Powell [March 7, 2009]
* Why We Love Hospital TV Shows [April 2, 2009]
* Vomit Inducing Summer Movies (2009 Edition) [May 3, 2009]
* When I think of Michael Jackson... [June 25, 2009]
* Are there More Outdoor Weddings in Movies Than In Real Life? [July 14, 2009]
* Grant/Hepburn and New Thoughts on Romantic Comedy [August 9, 2009]
* Robin Hood, Sequins, & Technicolor Birthday Cake Costumes [August 23, 2009]
* Reel People: Quinton Aaron is Michael Oher [August 28, 2009]
* Airports and Up in the Air [September 3, 2009]
* Strange Culture - Post Number 1000 [September 24, 2009]
* Peace or Conflict - The Challenge of Peace in Storytelling [October 13, 2009]
* A Modern Horror Film Soap Box [October 31, 2009]
* A Little About The 15 Documentaries on Oscar's Radar [November 21, 2009]
* My top 20 Films Of the Decade (2000-2009) [January 1, 2010]

Here's to another great year at StrangeCultureBlog! Thanks for reading, commenting & linking!

Previously blogaversary post: 1st, 2nd & 3rd.